Journal
Insights
Clear notes on forecasts, evidence, probability, and decisions.
Insights
How to read a sports prediction
Odds are compressed information, not a promise.
Michael SantiagoInsights
How accurate is the weather forecast?
Why usefulness changes with time horizon.
Michael SantiagoInsights
How to read an election forecast
A practical guide to probability and uncertainty.
Michael SantiagoInsights
Prediction markets vs. polls
Two different signals that answer different questions.
Michael Santiago